Just look at this How does one evaluate a card like this in a draft where you can also open Sol Ring, Swords to Plowshares, Flash, Ancestral Recall, The One Ring, Ragawan, Force of Will, Lightning Bolt and all the other very, very powerful cards that are in the Vintage Cube
This means that many hands are not statistically relevant (since we would mulligan them anyway) and, thus, many probabilities cant be calculated using such simple statistics
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It wasnt very good in an environment where creatures were hardly played and even if they were, your opponents would probably just take the cards anyway
"Elven Council" Precon LOTR-Only Upgrades
For example, theres a valid debate about whether its better to scry multiple cards rather than draw a card outright